OK, here is my prediction for this year's tournament. I ran it several times until it produced Kentucky as the final champion, because (1) Kentucky is local here and (2) Kentucky really does seem to be the best team. This model actually does a pretty good job of fitting several statistics to those produced by real tournaments, but it still looks a little wrong -- there seem to be too many wild upsets. A high school student is working with me to refine the model.
Based on my current model, the odds of picking the whole tournament correctly are optimized by assuming no upsets, and they are about 1 in 15.445 billion. This is about 600 million times more likely than the "official rules" of last year's "billion dollar bracket" competition estimated.
In the SOUTH Regional
In the 2nd Round:
16 NFL/RMU @ 1 Duke --> 1 Duke
15 N. Dak. St. @ 2 Gonzaga --> 2 Gonzaga
14 UAB @ 3 Iowa St. --> 3 Iowa St.
13 Eastern Wash. @ 4 Georgetown --> 4 Georgetown
12 S.F. Austin @ 5 Utah --> 12 S.F. Austin
11 UCLA @ 6 SMU --> 11 UCLA
10 Davidson @ 7 Iowa --> 7 Iowa
9 St. John's @ 8 S. Diego St. --> 9 St. John's
In the 3rd Round:
9 St. John's @ 1 Duke --> 9 St. John's
7 Iowa @ 2 Gonzaga --> 2 Gonzaga
11 UCLA @ 3 Iowa St. --> 11 UCLA
12 S.F. Austin @ 4 Georgetown --> 4 Georgetown
In the Sweet 16:
4 Georgetown @ 9 St. John's --> 9 St. John's
11 UCLA @ 2 Gonzaga --> 2 Gonzaga
In the Elite 8:
2 Gonzaga @ 9 St. John's --> 2 Gonzaga
------------------------------------------------------
In the WEST Regional
In the 2nd Round:
16 Coastal Car. @ 1 Wisconsin --> 1 Wisconsin
15 Texas Southern @ 2 Arizona --> 2 Arizona
14 Georgia St. @ 3 Baylor --> 3 Baylor
13 Harvard @ 4 N. Carolina --> 4 N. Carolina
12 Wofford @ 5 Arkansas --> 12 Wofford
11 BYU/Miss @ 6 Xavier --> 6 Xavier
10 Ohio St. @ 7 VCU --> 10 Ohio St.
9 Oklahoma St. @ 8 Oregon --> 8 Oregon
In the 3rd Round:
8 Oregon @ 1 Wisconsin --> 1 Wisconsin
10 Ohio St. @ 2 Arizona --> 10 Ohio St.
6 Xavier @ 3 Baylor --> 6 Xavier
12 Wofford @ 4 N. Carolina --> 4 N. Carolina
In the Sweet 16:
4 N. Carolina @ 1 Wisconsin --> 1 Wisconsin
6 Xavier @ 10 Ohio St. --> 10 Ohio St.
In the Elite 8:
10 Ohio St. @ 1 Wisconsin --> 1 Wisconsin
------------------------------------------------------
In the EAST Regional
In the 2nd Round:
16 Lafayette @ 1 Villanova --> 1 Villanova
15 Belmont @ 2 Virginia --> 2 Virginia
14 Albany @ 3 Oklahoma --> 3 Oklahoma
13 UC Irvine @ 4 Louisville --> 13 UC Irvine
12 Wyoming @ 5 Northern Iowa --> 5 Northern Iowa
11 BoSt/Dayt @ 6 Providence --> 11 BoSt/Dayt
10 Georgia @ 7 Michigan St. --> 7 Michigan St.
9 LSU @ 8 N.C. State --> 9 LSU
In the 3rd Round:
9 LSU @ 1 Villanova --> 1 Villanova
7 Michigan St. @ 2 Virginia --> 7 Michigan St.
11 BoSt/Dayt @ 3 Oklahoma --> 11 BoSt/Dayt
5 Northern Iowa @ 13 UC Irvine --> 5 Northern Iowa
In the Sweet 16:
5 Northern Iowa @ 1 Villanova --> 1 Villanova
11 BoSt/Dayt @ 7 Michigan St. --> 7 Michigan St.
In the Elite 8:
7 Michigan St. @ 1 Villanova --> 1 Villanova
------------------------------------------------------
In the MIDWEST Regional
In the 2nd Round:
16 Manh/Ham @ 1 Kentucky --> 1 Kentucky
15 N. Mex. St. @ 2 Kansas --> 2 Kansas
14 Northeastern @ 3 Notre Dame --> 3 Notre Dame
13 Valparaiso @ 4 Maryland --> 4 Maryland
12 Buffalo @ 5 West Virginia --> 5 West Virginia
11 Texas @ 6 Butler --> 11 Texas
10 Indiana @ 7 Wichita St. --> 10 Indiana
9 Purdue @ 8 Cincinnati --> 9 Purdue
In the 3rd Round:
9 Purdue @ 1 Kentucky --> 1 Kentucky
10 Indiana @ 2 Kansas --> 2 Kansas
11 Texas @ 3 Notre Dame --> 3 Notre Dame
5 West Virginia @ 4 Maryland --> 4 Maryland
In the Sweet 16:
4 Maryland @ 1 Kentucky --> 1 Kentucky
3 Notre Dame @ 2 Kansas --> 2 Kansas
In the Elite 8:
2 Kansas @ 1 Kentucky --> 1 Kentucky
------------------------------------------------------
In the FINAL FOUR:
1 Villanova @ 2 Gonzaga --> 1 Villanova
1 Kentucky @ 1 Wisconsin --> 1 Kentucky
In the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
1 Kentucky @ 1 Villanova --> 1 Kentucky
No comments:
Post a Comment